Friday, June 09, 2006
Dems garner huge upset although GOP retains House seat
As you may have heard, the Congressional seat formerly held by Republican and now-convicted Duke Cunningham is to be occupied by…another Republican. The political discourse of late has been all about the tantalizing prospect of the Democrats once again resuming their presumed natural control of Congress and the California 50th would have been a visibly symbolic place to start.
Only it didn't……so let the spinning begin.
First of all there is the issue of the polls. As we learned from the noted non-partisan desk of Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., we don’t really need to count votes when we have incredibly accurate polls to tell us who won. (Sample quote: “Over the past decades, exit polling has evolved into an exact science.”) On May 17th, the Busby campaign breathlessly informed us that Democratic candidate Francine Busby had a 7 point lead on Republican rival Brian Bilbray. While not an exit poll, clearly something is amiss when a Democratic pollster is that dramatically off. I hope Mr. Kennedy is on the case.
Lots of interesting sidelights to this race. The Republican Party apparently spent a lot of money on this race in what should be a safe Republican district. Senator McCain pulled out of a planned campaign appearance when it became obvious that he and Mr. Bilbray did not agree on the immigration issue. Ms. Busby made a couple of questionable moves late in the race which the other side easily exploited. Jim Geraghty over at NRO has a good roundup of reactions and commentaries on the race results. Also John J. Pitney Jr. @ NRO gives a good overview on the significance (or lack of it) of this result.
Bottom line: a Republican-held seat remains a Republican-held seat…at least through November. Who’d a thunk it?
Only it didn't……so let the spinning begin.
First of all there is the issue of the polls. As we learned from the noted non-partisan desk of Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., we don’t really need to count votes when we have incredibly accurate polls to tell us who won. (Sample quote: “Over the past decades, exit polling has evolved into an exact science.”) On May 17th, the Busby campaign breathlessly informed us that Democratic candidate Francine Busby had a 7 point lead on Republican rival Brian Bilbray. While not an exit poll, clearly something is amiss when a Democratic pollster is that dramatically off. I hope Mr. Kennedy is on the case.
Lots of interesting sidelights to this race. The Republican Party apparently spent a lot of money on this race in what should be a safe Republican district. Senator McCain pulled out of a planned campaign appearance when it became obvious that he and Mr. Bilbray did not agree on the immigration issue. Ms. Busby made a couple of questionable moves late in the race which the other side easily exploited. Jim Geraghty over at NRO has a good roundup of reactions and commentaries on the race results. Also John J. Pitney Jr. @ NRO gives a good overview on the significance (or lack of it) of this result.
Bottom line: a Republican-held seat remains a Republican-held seat…at least through November. Who’d a thunk it?
